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Abstract Thermophilization is the directional change in species community composition towards greater relative abundances of species associated with warmer environments. This process is well-documented in temperate and Neotropical plant communities, but it is uncertain whether this phenomenon occurs elsewhere in the tropics. Here we extend the search for thermophilization to equatorial Africa, where lower tree diversity compared to other tropical forest regions and different biogeographic history could affect community responses to climate change. Using re-census data from 17 forest plots in three mountain regions of Africa, we find a consistent pattern of thermophilization in tree communities. Mean rates of thermophilization were +0.0086 °C·y⁻¹in the Kigezi Highlands (Uganda), +0.0032 °C·y⁻¹in the Virunga Mountains (Rwanda-Uganda-Democratic Republic of the Congo) and +0.0023 °C·y⁻¹in the Udzungwa Mountains (Tanzania). Distinct from other forests, both recruitment and mortality were important drivers of thermophilzation in the African plots. The forests studied currently act as a carbon sink, but the consequences of further thermophilization are unclear. 

Mountain regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Yet, little is known about local adaptation responses in African mountain regions, especially if these are incremental or transformational. First, using household questionnaires, we interviewed 1,500 farmers across ten African mountain regions to investigate perceived climate change impacts and adaptation responses. Second, through a reflective process involving all co-authors, we identified: (1) main constraints and opportunities for adaptation, and (2) if adaptation was incremental or transformational. Questionnaire data show that farmers in all sites perceive multiple impacts, and that they mostly respond by intensifying farming practices and using off-farm labour. We established that, while several constraints were shared across sites, others were context specific; and that adaptation was mostly incremental, but that certain attributes (for example, social capital) made three sites in East Africa slightly more transformational. 

Abstract Trees structure the Earth’s most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations^1–6in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth’s 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories⁷, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world’s most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.